The Fourth Wheel, Issue 97
Watches and Wonders 2024: Everything we already know, everything we want to find out, and everything that's going on elsewhere
Hello and welcome back to The Fourth Wheel, the weekly watch newsletter whose bags are packed for Switzerland1! I’m off to Watches and Wonders on Monday - to Geneva, where the taxis are expensive, the chocolate is milky and watchmakers you’ve never even heard of can afford billboard advertising at the airport. The loupes have been polished, the lume torches charged up and I’m preparing to eat my last vegetables for a week. While I’m in Switzerland I will be sharing constant live updates and reactions to all the new watches I see. If you want to keep up in real time, make sure you’re following The Fourth Wheel on Instagram and - now, very excitingly - on TikTok as well.
There will be a newsletter at the end of the week but it will publish on Saturday 13th at 10:10 because I’ll still be seeing shiny new things on Friday and I want to include it all. I’ll devote it to my unfiltered reactions, but also the best gossip, hot takes and industry news that I pick up throughout the week. Everyone else is going to have you covered for the new Rolex run-downs. As always, coming here, I want you to know you’ll get something unique - and because it’s Watches and Wonders, next week’s email will also be free to everyone!
The Fourth Wheel is a reader-supported publication with no advertising, sponsorship or commercial partnerships to influence its content. It is made possible by the generous support of its readers: if you think watch journalism could do with a voice that exists outside of the usual media dynamic, please consider taking out a paid subscription. You can start with a free trial!
Here’s a little taste of what you might have missed recently:
Roger Smith on British Watchmaking
Is Parmigiani Up For Sale? Who Would Buy It?
Where Are All The Risk-Takers?
What Was The Greatest Era Of Chronograph Watchmaking?
The Dying Art Of The CEO Interview
Speculation, speculation, speculation; that’s the name of the game. What will they show us?! Like children on Christmas Eve, we’re fidgeting up and down with excitement and with such anticipation over the new watches that are waiting to be unveiled, it is possible to lose sight of the wider context somewhat. So - because I am such a Debbie downer, I’m sorry - while you’re gorging yourself on novelties, here are some wider issues to try and keep in mind. I’ll be watching and listening closely to see which, if any, get mentioned at the show - call it ‘Elephant In The Room Bingo’.
Transparency and Sustainability. Tired of hearing me bang on about it? Tough. Watch brands are going to pay lip service to the idea with greenwashing limited editions, but will anyone have anything concrete to say? Will anyone go out on a limb and commit to real change?
Only Watch 2024. I’ll be trying to find out which brands have committed to coming back, and what the general mood is. Forgiven and forgotten?
The auction scene. Will it bounce back from an annus horribilis of scandals, legal action and cancellations? Are prices going up, down or sideways? Has the neo-vintage indie market already started to cool off?
Supply, Demand and Prices. Can anyone bring themselves to ask if we really need all these new watches? Exports are up, but sales to consumers are down… are we brewing another grey-market crisis? Can the strategy - as expressed by Rob Corder this week, see links below - of selling fewer watches for more money to an increasingly squeezed pool of super-rich customers really work? Is there really enough demand for all these new high-end indie brands?
The Creativity Crisis. You heard me. Oh, there are some great watches out there, but answer me this: how many are new, interesting designs that don’t rely on third-party collabs, limited edition partnerships or re-editions of vintage pieces? I’ll be counting as I go round, and I bet I don’t need the fingers on both hands.
That’s not to say I’m not interested in the new watches themselves, or that I don’t feel excited. I do! I’ll be absorbed by what I see, and I bet there’s plenty I wish I could own. In fact, there is a lot I already know about: some of it is under embargo, so I can’t say too much, but let me skirt the edges of that embargo by giving you a little Fourth Wheel Excitement Index. This is who I’m most excited to see next week, and why.
Bremont. All the rumours are that Bremont will show not just new releases but a completely new product strategy and maybe even something of a re-brand. I’ve seen some images that have made me very curious - this might have something of a Marmite quality about it.
IWC. Last year’s Ingenieur love-in left me a little bit cold. This year, I know we’re going to see more new watches, more horological innovation and a wider spread of influences.
TAG Heuer. I think if you liked what you saw last year, you’ll enjoy what’s around the corner. Can’t give more away than that.
Zenith. Something you did NOT expect is coming from Zenith and I really want to know what it’s like in real life. Could be a divisive one.
Nomos. I’m biased, as a proper fan, but there’s a collection of watches launching that I know I’m going to spend a long time poring over. It’s pure Nomos, it’s not something any other brand would do, and I hope it lives up to my expectations.
Those are the ones that have really wet my appetite. There are half a dozen brands I always look forward to seeing, because I feel confident I’ll be shown something interesting, different, cool or ridiculous. Chanel, Czapek, Hermes, H. Moser, Parmigiani, Trilobe, Ressence… they’re always worth it. It should go without saying I’ll be at Rolex, Tudor, Patek, Lange, Cartier and all the other big brands, but they are what they are, and while I don’t know what I’ll see (for the most part), I do know what I’ll see, if you follow me.
Who does have the capacity to surprise? Oris managed it last year, as did Rolex. From within the fair’s 54 brands, I don’t know which I’d bet on to provide the unexpected hit. Grand Seiko? Bell & Ross? Ulysse Nardin? Has Piaget got more in the chamber, after its Polo 79? Is Jaeger-LeCoultre or Panerai going to turn heads? I hope so.
Thanks to some changes to the rules laid down by Watches and Wonders’ organisers2, some of the smaller brands exhibiting have been allowed to release details of their watches ahead of time. I want to see these for real before passing in-depth judgement, but here’s a very quick look at six launches from independent brands that have already been announced.
Angelus Instrument de Vitesse
I like this. I mean I really like this. Thirty-nine millimetres of stainless steel, a hand-wound monopusher chronograph movement inside, and a classic racing dial. Take my money - all £16,500 of it. Actually, that is a lot of money, and I can already feel my passion cooling, but it’s a limited run of 25 pieces (another 25 in a white dial version) and, well, just look at it. Angelus’s recent chronographs have been quite heavy-set things, and more forward-looking aesthetically (which I must acknowledge; even though I don’t actually like them as much, at least they’ve been doing new things), but this is both cleaner of dial and thinner of case, and I’m always in favour of both.
Arnold & Son Longitude
Well, what have we here? An integrated bracelet design… in…. titaniu-yaawwwwn. Sorry. Must have nodded off there for a second. Anyway, yes, Arnold & Son is joining the bandwagon just as it lurches to an overloaded halt. These aren’t bad watches but they’re incredibly uninspired. It reeks of ‘why don’t we have a slice of this market?’ and what few distinguishing features there are to set it aside from the competition are I’m afraid not ones I enjoy. Such as the large power reserve indicator at 12 o’clock, or the notched bezel that doesn’t rotate. The case and bracelet aren’t particularly smoothly integrated; it’s a broad-shouldered look, and while all the touchpoints are present - satin brushed and polished contrasts, etc etc - there isn’t anything that I can see to justify you spending £21,400 (!) on one. My general view on Arnold & Son is quite positive - I can do without the non-existent connection to 18th century English watchmaking, and calling this the 'Longitude’ is pretty on-the-nose. I mean at least save that name for a worldtimer or GMT? (The kind of thing Roger Smith was getting worked up about a few weeks ago) but I’ve always thought watches like the DSTB and Nebula were pretty cool. This isn’t A&S at its best.
Czapek Antarctique Mount Erebus
WHAM. Long-time readers will know I’ve been a fan of the Antarctique since it launched, but this is a whole new dimension for the above-average integrated design. The Erebus (named for the southernmost active volcano in the world, which apparently emits gold dust in its lava), comes in rose gold as well but come on, you have to get behind the sheer impact of full yellow. In pictures, the dial is a little underwhelming, but I’m reserving judgement as Czapek’s dials recently have been pretty great in real life. With the full metal bracelet this is a CHF 54,000 watch, plus taxes - so, you know, pretty much par for the course, as discussed by Jack Forster in relation to the Piaget Polo 79 not so long ago. This doesn’t have the disreputable, shirt-open-to-the-naval character of the Polo 79 or Vacheron 222, but as an alternative to a Royal Oak Jumbo I think it holds its ground. Czapek lets you spec it with brushed or polished centre links, which I like (polished please).
Ferdinand Berthoud Chronometre FB RES
I remember the writer Simon de Burton once saying that if, on the presentation of a watch by its proud manufacturer you find yourself underwhelmed and struggling for suitably diplomatic language, you can always fall back on an exclamation like ‘Well, you’ve done it again!’ It’s sort of how I feel about Ferdinand Berthoud. The work involved is phenomenal; the finishing impressive, the commitment to a very specific ideology and aesthetic laudable… but I would be hard pressed to imagine myself buying one even with the wealth of Croesus at my disposal. They just don’t do it for me. What is interesting is that this release isn’t an entirely new watch per se, but a significant evolution of the FB 2RE launched in 2020. Now, customers can configure their watch with a round or octagonal case3 in a number of materials from gold (all colours) to ceramised titanium, and choose the colour and finish of the dial and inner ring. Two hundred possible combinations exist, and just 38 will be made, so it’s likely no two will be alike. That’s premium collector-bait, and good on them. The movement is to die for, despite my personal feelings about the watch overall - I just wish the hands and case were more graceful, that the proportions were more harmonious, but beauty in the eye of the beholder and all that.
H. Moser Pioneer Centre Seconds Concept Citrus Green
Ok, the names are getting a little long chaps. But this tennis ball for the wrist is an easy contender for brightest watch of the fair. A ring of lume around the dial? Yes please - like a floodlit court. I thought I’d like it on a bracelet more than the blue rubber strap, but having seen Monochrome’s real life pictures, I think it is too close to the Oris ProPilot X ‘Kermit’ - even though they are separated by about ten grand and a vast gulf in watchmaking approaches - so let’s stick to the blue rubber. I think in this day and age there will be more voices than just mine wishing it might come in a 39mm case rather than a nearly-43mm one, as well. But otherwise? A strong opening from Moser. Inside is the well-known HMC 201 calibre, and it’ll set you back CHF 14,500.
Trilobe L’Heure Exquise
Exquise me, but is that an Hermes on your wrist? Oh no, monsieur, pas de tout. C’est une Trilobe! I’m not saying Trilobe are a bunch of copycats - their signature design is that rare thing: a properly new watch in the modern era, and I respect it. But there is a whiff of Arceau4 about that slanted typography, the moon phase and constellation dial variations. It’s not a bad thing, and I’m sure there are other design influences, but it’s where my head went. Euros 14,500 including tax, available in 38.5mm and 40.5mm sizes, in polished titanium or rose gold. I’m still not sure I know who Trilobe’s target customer is, but I’m happy the brand exists.
That’s all for now. A little amuse bouche before the all-you-can-eat banquet commences. See you on the other side!
Quick Links
Move Over COSC – Omega Launches A Brand New Chronometer Certification With The Creation Of The Laboratoire de Précision, at Hodinkee
This is interesting news in its own right, and fits the clear pattern of Swatch Group getting stories out on the eve of Watches and Wonders. The comments section is as thought-provoking as the story itself; there are a lot of unanswered questions here. I’ve asked Omega for more information and if and when I get it, I think I’ll give a whole issue over to the idea of chronometer certification and why it matters.What Makes Me Tick: Tennis Champion Mr Matthew Ebden
I love our ‘What Makes Me Tick’ pieces on Mr Porter, because we get everyone from metal guitarists to war reporters talking about a passion for watches. But some are more serious watch geeks than others, and Matt Ebden is 100% a watch geek. Thanks to Tim Vaux for writing the piece and getting some lovely details out of him - it cannot be long before a brand snaps this guy up as an ambassador.Hodinkee Radio: Previewing Watches & Wonders 2024 With Ben, James, And Danny, at Hodinkee
If you’re really still jonesing for Watches and Wonders speculation, fill yourself up on this episode of H Radio, which I liked mostly for Ben’s comment that the best/most influential/most radical thing Rolex could do would be to come out and say ‘no new watches this year’.Safety first for Watches and Wonders, at WatchPro
If you think I’m cynical about the year ahead, wait til you read Rob Corder’s latest column. He’s probably right, that it will be a year of consolidation and safe, sensible releases - his point about titanium in particular is well made - and as I wrote a few weeks ago, if no-one takes any risks, this is a gloomy prophecy that will come true.100 Years Of Citizen: The Latest Watch From A Technical Powerhouse Is An Old School Pocket Watch, at WatchBox
Something was amiss with the world recently: a new flagship watch had been released by Citizen, and Jack Forster hadn’t written about it. Harmony is restored to the universe with this article; Jack’s writing is a bit more clipped at WatchBox compared with his Substack, as is only right and proper, but it’s still a great write-up on a watch that most people have largely ignored5.
And Finally…
Everyone has got very excited6 this week about NASA being told to come up with a time zone for the moon. I almost went mad trying to find where I’d seen this story before: turns out more than a year ago the European Space Agency had started talking about this (with NASA, it should be said) so the recent flurry of articles might have been received with a wry smile by the scientists who have actually been addressing the problem for a while now. I wrote about it briefly in Issue 41, and there’s a good article in Wired about telling the time on the Moon. If the general subject of interplanetary timekeeping interests you, I also recommend this piece on telling the time on Mars…
In other moon-news, Swatch just dropped the MoonSwatch Mission To The Moonphase: New Moon, which is starting to sound like an installment of the Transformers movie franchise. And talking of unwanted sequels…. no, that’s unfair. This is probably nicer than the white one, and long term I think is bound to sell more. But with every successive launch, I can feel us all care a little less. It was inevitable; the MoonSwatch has gone from surprise sensation to part of the furniture pretty quickly, and that’s probably a price worth paying for Swatch Group given that people are still queuing up to buy them. I’d say they can squeeze this lemon for a good couple of years yet.
Thanks for reading!
Chris
At time of writing, bags are only packed in a theoretical sense.
There is, for other brands, a month-long PR blackout ahead of the event, to ensure that no-one detracts from the impact of the event by announcing their new watches early. It was decided this year that to help some of the smaller brands attract attention at the fair, they could announce new product two weeks before W&W. It’s an interesting tweak; on the one hand, I like the Christmas-morning sense of it all, where everything’s revealed at once; on the other, I can totally understand that if you’re Angelus or Speake-Marin, no-one listens to what you’re saying when Rolex, Patek, TAG Heuer, Cartier etc are all shouting at the same time.
The brand actually notes that it is ‘unprecedented’ for Ferdinand Berthoud to produce a remontoire calibre in an octagonal case, which seems to me to be one of the most bizarre ‘firsts’ ever claimed in this industry, and that’s saying something.
Yes. I heard it too.
Myself included, true, but only because I was sure Jack was about to unleash a few thousand words on it…
Well… ok, space and horology nerds have got excited. A bit.
Trilobe really does stand out as doing something different in a good way. Their take on a chronograph would be fascinating
Excellent article, I really appreciate this comprehensive update. I particularly enjoyed the 'speculation' section, those are salient points and challenges, for sure. Great work!