Issue 175: What AI can (and can't) do for watches
Plus, some coming changes to The Fourth Wheel
Hello and welcome back to The Fourth Wheel, the weekly watch newsletter that is evolving before your very eyes. Most publications don’t tell their audience they’re changing, they just do it, but I feel like you all came on board because you like what I put out there, and if it’s going to change, you should get a heads up.
Firstly, I’m not messing with the Friday newsletter. Secondly, I don’t know the full extent of what I’m going to change - but I realise that after three and a half years it’s important to keep things fresh. Here are a couple of specific changes you’re going to see soon, and some vague ones that I’m working on. None of this is set in stone, so if you have Strong Opinions on what I’m suggesting, please let me know!
Brand profiles
One of the most popular newsletters this year was Issue 163: “Is There A More Confusing Brand Than Chopard?” Obviously the provocative headline helped, but it seemed to me that people enjoyed the kind of top-to-bottom critique of how the brand presents itself. I’m going to do more of these, probably one every six weeks or so, and the next one will be IWC. If you want to share your opinions/anecdotes on the brand, I’m all ears.
Podcasts
If one finding stood out from the reader survey, it’s that a significant percentage of you would be interested in more podcast content. The Watch Enquiry will be returning with a few episodes soon, but I’m also looking at how I might do something more regularly under the TFW banner. I hope to trial something this side of Christmas.
Dead Tree Projects
Similarly, a lot of you indicated you’d be interested in print projects of some kind. I’m pleased to hear it, because I have a few ideas in this area - but they’re going to take a little while to bring together. 2026 should see some stuff take shape.
Other changes
Those of you who filled out the survey also expressed an interest in a lot of other things, from branded merch to an increased number of reviews, to extra emails, to more investigative reporting. (No-one asked for more Dad jokes but I’ll be working on that anyway). I can’t do everything but I’m going to try and make sure as much of it happens as possible. Mostly, what you want is exactly the kind of thing I want to do anyway - it’s just a matter of time. Which leads me to…
A shameless plea!
I wish I could spend nearly all my time working on The Fourth Wheel. That’s the goal. Getting there is a chicken-and-egg process: if I put more time into making it, hopefully more people will pay to subscribe, but that comes at its own cost. I appreciate so, so much that people pay to read an email every week, and several of you pointed out the challenges of the Substack economy; you’re now being asked for money by a lot of individuals, and as one reader put it, you can subscribe to the New York Times and get everything that entails for less than a handful of Substacks.
The problem - as I’m sure you well know - is that the NYT, and every other major media corporation - is effectively subsidising your subscription. I.e. if the newspaper relied solely on reader subscription revenue, you’d have to pay significantly more to read it. I don’t take advertising, or brand partnerships, and so I have to charge proportionally more. But I get it, I really do. That’s why I’m trying to bring out new things, to make a paid subscription seem like better value.
But here’s the plea: if you’ve been thinking about a paid subscription but haven’t taken the plunge, now would be a great time. I’m going to pour my heart and soul into this new stuff regardless, but it would be such a vote of confidence to know that I’m heading in the right direction. I realise I’m asking you to commit before I’ve made any changes, and I don’t take any of it for granted, but if it’s been on your mind for a while, why not give it a go. I’ll try to make it worth your while.
Here’s a little taste of what you might have missed recently:
May I Stray The A.I. Way?
As you can probably imagine, I get asked what I think AI will do to my business quite frequently. There is no simple answer. I have written before about what I think the limitations of generative AI are when it comes to the kind of writing in which I aim to specialise, and even that thought exercise is helping me do better work.
Simply put, my job will be measured on how much original information I can gather, how many first-hand experiences I can have, how much analytical rigour and contextual insight I can apply to what I’m seeing and hearing, and how effectively I can turn that into a story that keeps you reading. So far, AI can only do the last part, and even then not particularly well. It will improve, and it will eventually acquire some of the analytical skills, too - although there are limits here, in terms of what information it has available to it - so it’s on the first two categories that I’m really focussing.
As luck would have it, this ties in with the content changes I alluded to earlier. But enough about me1. Let’s talk about what AI might be able to do for the industry.
Creativity versus productivity
I was inspired to write about AI by the Deloitte Industry Study, which dedicated a chapter to digital frontiers. The study also - elsewhere - cited MY Independent Watchmaking Report, which was nice!
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