The Fourth Wheel, Issue 100!
News about the future of the Fourth Wheel, plus the AMA: vintage Rolex, auction fatigue, good design, sustainability and Hodinkee's ups and downs.
Hello and welcome back to The Fourth Wheel, the weekly watch newsletter that is one hundred issues old! Happy birthday to me! I am over the moon and have a lot to tell you today but the first order of business is to say: thank you.
Thank you all - those who subscribed from Issue 1, those who pay to read this every week, those who say such nice things about it and everyone who reads in any form, anywhere, any time. I shall borrow a saying from a certain Mr G. Bamford: You can get by without me but I cannot get by without you. Cheesy, yes, but it could not be more true. The Fourth Wheel lives and dies by its readership and I realise this every single time I put finger to keyboard. I am touched that you like what I do, and I hope you like the sound of what’s to come, because I’m excited about it. Read on to find out more. Oh and there’s no paywall today - my treat.
Further down we have the 10th AMA, with some excellent questions submitted as ever, but first of all I have announcements.
1. Century Special Flash Sale
For the month of May, subscriptions will be discounted - snap one up if you’ve been on the fence. You know the pitch by now, I hope: an independent journalistic voice providing content you don’t get anywhere else. A reminder: corporate group subscriptions receive an additional 15 per cent off, and you can also get a free or discounted sub if you refer enough friends.
2. I’m launching another newsletter
A better way to put this would be: The Fourth Wheel is growing. A little while ago I floated the idea, and I’ve decided to go ahead with it. From June, you will now also be able to subscribe to The Fourth Wheel: Vintage Bulletin. This will publish on the first Monday of every month and will be dedicated to vintage and pre-owned watches. This is probably the most obviously absent subject from TFW - for all that I cover major auctions and scandals when they arise - and now this world will have a permanent home.
This will be a different kind of content; in-depth stories on vintage watches and the community, rather than reactive comment, although rest assured everything will be seen through the same lens (I mean, it’s still me writing, and I’m not going to change).
I will also highlight what I think are the most interesting watches for sale around the web, discuss market trends and share insights from those more learned than myself (because if there’s one truth about the vintage watch world it’s that there is always someone who knows more than you about a specific brand, model or reference).
There is one other aspect to the Vintage Bulletin that I’m hoping to introduce - but at the risk of being excessively mysterious, there are still some legalities I need to investigate before I commit to the idea. All will be revealed…!
Like The Fourth Wheel, the Vintage Bulletin will be subject to a paywall: every month some content will be available to everyone, but the juiciest bits, including the aforementioned mystery elements, will only be offered to paying subscribers. The good news is that you get this for the same price as the current subscription. All subscribers will get the Vintage Bulletin by default but if you want to only receive the classic, original Friday email, you can opt out in your Substack account settings.
3. I’m also launching a podcast
Wait, come back, it’s different, I promise! This is not exclusively a Fourth Wheel property, as I am teaming up with my old colleague and great friend Tim Barber to bring you a podcast that we genuinely believe is nothing like anyone else’s. Despite your initial assumptions, it’s not just another ‘two blokes talking about watches every week’1. It’s called The Watch Enquiry, and it’s going to be published in short series of 6-8 episodes - forgive the smug phrase but the way I keep finding myself describing it is like a magazine for your ears. Every episode will address a question relevant to the world of watches, and like the best magazine features, will contain original research, quotes and information from expert sources. Circumstances outside of our control - well, mostly - mean we don’t have a launch date for it yet, but I wanted to get the news out on the big 1-0-0. And the reason I’m telling you all about it is that Fourth Wheel subscribers will be given early access to every episode (paying subscribers even earlier!).
4. I’m having a little party
To celebrate this milestone, I thought it might be nice to get a few people together for a drink. Actually, it was suggested to me by the Watch Collectors’ Club, who have kindly agreed to help organise a night out for Fourth Wheel readers. It’s nothing fancy, but if you are in London at the end of May and want to hear me talk about watch journalism, among - I expect - many other things, come along. The full details will be shared in due course but it will be a zone 1 location, mid-week, no airs and graces.
Ask Me Anything
A note that applies to every single question this week: they are all worthy of full-length newsletter answers! So I have tried my best to be insightful without writing ten thousand words. But everyone tapped into big topics that I will return to in weeks to come.
I went to the Phillips auction London viewing yesterday and was struck by how dull I found it. Daytonas, FPJs, a Dufour, all much of a muchness. To be fair, there were a few interesting things in there, and some of it is the result of needing enough predictable high-value pieces to make the economics of the auction work - but what is your perspective on the idea that the relentless publicity surrounding all the big watch auctions with all the same watches has actually made the “top tier” of collecting actually a bit boring, predictable and dull? - Jonathan Hughes
Not being a top-tier collector myself, I will have to content myself with imagining what it might be like to be bored by endless Journes and Daytonas. As a professional commentator on this world, however, I get bored by things all the time. Sometimes brands get quite irate when journalists let slip that they’re bored, because it takes years to make watches and only a few seconds scrolling Instagram to feel like you’ve seen enough of that Gino’s Dream Elegante to last a lifetime. The constant quest to find something new and entertaining is exhausting, and that applies whether you are a magazine editor, vintage dealer, Instagram content creator or the watch specialists compiling an auction. Sales like the one Heist Out put together with Sotheby’s in Geneva the other week show that it can be done, but they are, by definition, the exception. The market’s meat-and-potatoes is Rolex and Patek so even though the watches crossing the block are the best of the best, there are a lot of them out there and it can’t be simply dismissed as the shallow petulance of a bored Roman Emperor when you start to feel like you’ve seen too many 2499s or Stella dial Day-Dates. Familiarity breeds contempt, as they say, and this is why the true legends of the auction world are the watches that are known to exist in finite quantities (even if those records sometimes prove to be inaccurate).
I think asking if it’s boring makes me ask: boring for whom? Or rather, what kind of collector are we to imagine is actually the target market? If you are a dedicated collector of a certain brand, reference or style of watch, you probably gloss over 95 per cent of what you see, but the experience doesn’t bore you because you’re waiting, searching, hunting for the right watch and that’s what you’ve signed up for. If you’re buying what seems to be in vogue - and if auction houses, experts, collectors and media are collectively involved (knowingly or not) in creating an environment where certain watches are ‘in’ right now, then you are contributing to a situation where top-tier watches are bought not as acquisitions to a collection but as seasonal, hype-worthy, transient purchases. I’m not sure exactly where I’m going with this, other than to say that perhaps there are worse things than a predictable market and one of them is a market that is being artificially manipulated to create the appearance of newness. You only have to look at the very middling, very mixed auction values of early 2000s indie watches to see that trying to force interest in something other than the tried-and-tested favourites can be a challenge. That’s not to say tastes aren’t shifting, but like anything, there will be a small core of early adopters and a more sluggish middle mass of buyers who still like what they know (and what all their friends are still impressed by) - as you say in your question. I’m interested in related questions, like “do themed sales create a market, or kill it stone dead?”, “how many more controversies can the top-tier auction world survive?2” and “is the top-tier auction world actually relevant to anyone other than a very small number of dealer-collectors?”
What is your take on this article about Hodinkee? Daniel Schweizer
Daniel also writes: “Personally, I used to be an all-in Hodinkee 'stan' starting in the early 2010's. I downloaded their apps (Remember WatchVille?), subscribed to the physical magazine, listened to all the podcasts, and read about 90% of the content on the website.
Over the last three years I became more and more disillusioned based on some of the staff departures and changes in overall tone. In the past year, I have unsubscribed from everything, including the magazine and podcasts. Now I have mostly stopped consuming their content, even when outside links point to them.
I know there is a lot of hate out there for the 'dink; while I choose not to engage with them as much, I certainly don't wish them any ill will.”
Ok. Deep breath. The article - to save you clicking away - appeared in Ad Week on April 5th and relates Hodinkee’s trials and tribulations since the pandemic years, with its acquisition of Crown and Caliber and subsequent rounds of layoffs, and the perceived shift in its editorial strategy. (The article cites an anonymous commenter who accuses Nick Marino of turning Hodinkee into Mr Porter - I think more pertinent is that Hodinkee literally hired Mr Porter’s former MD Toby Bateman, but more to the point, don’t drag my good name into this ;-) )
People in the watch industry and in watch media especially are always talking about what’s happening at Hodinkee. When it was at the height of its success, I used to rant and rage at my desk when the big H ran a story I’d been told was under embargo til a few days later, or when it scored an interview I’d been told was impossible to get. Then I’d sit back and be impressed by the scope and scale of its editorial ambition, which I think for the years 2014-2019, roughly, was the best it has been, although I will say that right to this very day, Hodinkee publishes more ambitious, better-quality content than pretty much every one of its competitors.
That’s my starting position. I also know intimately the struggle involved in making money out of content, and I don’t think Hodinkee was wrong in trying to pivot to retail. I mean, I’d love it if editorial businesses didn’t have to do this, but you can’t survive, or grow, on advertising alone.
I don’t know enough about Hodinkee’s financials to criticise the business strategy. Certainly it was unfortunate in buying C&C at the height of the market. The move away from selling vintage watches probably made business sense, because the margins are pretty tiny most of the time, but coupled with a shift towards selling new watches as an authorised dealer, is easy to read as a move away from die-hard watch geek fans and towards a more mainstream audience. And this is the real charge - albeit the one that the Ad Week piece is least able to substantiate - that Hodinkee has sold out, watered down, neutered and diluted its editorial output.
It has definitely changed. The world of watches has changed too, and you can probably argue that as its dominant media title, Hodinkee hasn’t just reflected that change in its coverage, it has contributed towards it. There are aspects of the mainstreamification of luxury watches that aren’t welcomed by existing fans; there are inherent dangers in getting too close to the world of fashion that I’ve touched on before, but I think it is probably impossibly naive to expect that the Hodinkee of the five years I mentioned above could continue forever.
I don’t think people’s bile, when directed at the writers and story choices on Hodinkee, is entirely deserved. I think losing big names like Jack Forster and Joe Thompson and Steven Pulvirent and others will have an effect on any title, but I don’t mean to imply the current team is incapable of producing the kind of content old-school Hodinkee fans want. I think Mark and Tony and James and Danny do quite a lot of it, and I’ve stuck up for Malaika’s stories enough times on here to not feel like I have to argue that one again. For me, Hodinkee’s reputational problems have come from isolated incidents away from the editorial output - travel clock gate; the comms around the LVMH investment, to name a couple - which undermined the trust of its audience. I also think it is wise for the CEO of any business making serious staff cuts to think carefully about how many vintage Porsches, rare Rolexes and elite golf courses you need to post on social media.
Lastly, the media landscape has continued to evolve rapidly in the last decade. Hodinkee led the way in many respects, but today’s watch consumer is used to outspoken YouTube channels, collectors telling their own experiences direct on Instagram, and yes, even opinionated little Substacks like mine. It’s hard to be at the bleeding edge of what your audience wants when you still need to be very careful not to jeopardise the commercial relationships of the Hodinkee shop. If it were me, I’d double-down on in-depth quality writing, bring back some of the community-focussed strands of content, leverage the fact they still have the best access in the entire world, and every now and then let someone off the leash to be a bit more frank. I’ll return to an earlier point: Hodinkee is still better than a lot of its rivals, who have all the same conflicts and pressures but don’t, as a rule, write as many stories that deviate from the PR agenda, so in my opinion it wouldn’t take too much to get the loyalists back on side.
What are your thoughts on tourbillons? From Chinese ones (Seagull), Oliver Mori’s discount ones to Breguet, Bulgari… and Zeus aka Richard Mille. Will they continue to attract the fans? Lca_porsche on Instagram
Gun to my head, I don’t really like tourbillons. But even answering this is making me examine my opinion, because it really makes you think about why you like mechanical watches at all. Most people who don’t like tourbillons feel that way because a tourbillon is fundamentally unnecessary on a wristwatch. But if, as many of us do, you accept that a mechanical watch is an unnecessary item, where do you draw the line? If you like watches for the engineering, the craft, the fine finishing and the sheer bloody-mindedness of making incredibly complicated machines really just for the sake of it, then why not tourbillons? It comes down to caring about complications that you probably won’t use in the way they were originally intended, but could serve a practical purpose (chronographs, minute repeaters, even calendars) over caring about ‘complications’ (not going into that one) that don’t really serve any purpose and that therefore you can’t even pretend you’re going to use. Which is a pretty slim bit of hair-picking, if you think about it. So I can admire tourbillons. I recently picked one for the GQ Watches newsletter in a W&W draft, but I felt a bit conflicted about it.
Here’s where I end up: in general, I am all for the democratisation of complicated watchmaking, but given that a tourbillon in a modern watch really only exists as a demonstration of watchmaking ability, I feel like it should actually demonstrate watchmaking ability, including the art of fine finishing. There’s not much to love about a cheap or industrially produced tourbillon, whether that’s from Seagull, Bremont, TAG Heuer or Horage (this is an interesting take on what an entry-level tourbillon looks and feels like, and whether it makes any sense, from Cole Pennington at Hodinkee). At the other end of the spectrum, I think endless iterating and fiddling with tourbillon development, no matter how clever or difficult, risks descending into self-parody. The multi-axis tourbillon, gyrotourbillon, spherotourbillon, tourbillon of tourbillons (who remembers Antoine Prezuiso?)… it’s all one-upmanship for bored collectors, and when I hear about them I can’t help but think of this kind of thing. Will they continue to attract fans? Oh yes, I’m afraid so. Just look at how many were launched at W&W this year.
“What is the state of play throughout the vintage Rolex market at the moment? My understanding is that pieces of questionable provenance continue to reach auction blocks. We’re also seeing a stunning volume of stone dial Day-Dates with similar patterning, and various typically-rare permutations of GMT Masters and Submariners. It seems like a minefield.” Compa on Instagram
I don’t mind admitting that this is a question that I’d benefit from taking a few weeks to research before answering (hey, if only I was launching a vintage-themed newsletter!) but my immediate response is: you bet it’s a minefield. Caveat emptor, always. All the usual structural problems are still in place: as tastes change (a nebulous phrase, as already alluded to: who’s making them change, and why?) knowledge becomes even more important - by which I mean there isn’t necessarily the depth of reliable information out there about stone dials and disco-era pieces that there is about Subs, Daytonas and the kind of watches that have fuelled the vintage boom since the mid-2000s. Any time you have to rely on the seller for ‘authoritative’ research on something you’re buying is a problematic one. Is it possible that shifts in the market are bringing out hitherto unexpected volumes of certain watches, whose owners were holding them in the hope that values would rise (or who have been actively trying to build the market ahead of selling)? Yes. Is it possible that seeing this happen is presenting unscrupulous individuals with an opportunity to feed questionable watches into the market before everyone arms themselves with the intel they need to spot a Franken or a fake? Also yes. But twas ever thus. So - caveat emptor!
What brand do you think is getting it right in design right now? George Bamford
I happen to have on my wrist as I write this a Baltic Hermetique, so let’s start there. Certainly as a brand whose primary appeal is its design, as opposed to its technical prowess, it is flying. I also think anOrdain and Paulin fit in the same category (yes, we are also coming for the enameling). I think Nomos is killing it, but you could argue it always has. Ressence doesn’t put a foot wrong, in my book.
It’s not my cup of tea but Louis Vuitton has improved in my eyes lately. Hermes is flying. It’s not particularly cool to say so and there’s certainly nothing ground-breaking going on (in terms of design), but IWC’s range looks as strong as I can remember it looking. Some Chopard - the LUC and Alpine Eagle (but not the chronograph) - and some Zenith; predominantly the heritage pieces.
What do you think of recycled watches and the world of eco-friendly watches? George Bamford
Another huge question. I’ve said quite a bit about this in Fourth Wheels gone by, but where I stand right now is very close to the views expressed by Robin Swithinbank in the story I linked to last week. To be taken seriously, sustainable initiatives need to show consistent year-on-year progress. They can’t be ideas to which the industry pays lip service when it can afford to, or when it feels like it needs to in order to dispel criticism. In Geneva I heard from various sources that Richemont’s group-level decision not to let its brands talk about sustainability is the source of great frustration for those that are setting an example. It has probably been done so as not to embarrass the brands that are lagging behind. Watches containing recycled parts or materials should become the norm. Proper reform of the industry’s supply chains is necessary. True openness about Swiss Made and manufacturing locations is necessary. Corporate behaviour that sets a sustainable example on travel, packaging, marketing, hospitality etc is all necessary. But until there are genuine incentives - carrot or stick, ideally both at once - then change will remain piecemeal and insignificant. Until either customers boycott insufficiently sustainable products, or national and international bodies mandate higher standards (which is coming), the initiative for change must come from within, and thus far it has not been enough.
Quick Links
A Collected Man Bounces Back After Chastening Year For Collectible Watch Specialist, at WatchPro
Most interesting thing I read this week - a really frank and open story detailing the highs and lows of the last couple of years for a small(ish) business like ACM.When Monaco Gives You Lemons, Make Lemonade, at Perezcope
Another week, another auction blow-up from the usual sources. The specifics are concerning but for me this is just becoming a question of deteriorating faith in the entire auction system - except, as I say above, the system seems highly resilient to scandal. Instagram addicts will probably also have seen the allegations from “Vintage Hannah” about an allegedly stolen watch that was sold by Monaco Legends.Credor Celebrates its 50th Anniversary with the Blue/Gold Eichi II GBLT996, at Monochrome
There’s a new Credor Eichi II - how cool! Not sure why this wasn’t launched at Watches and Wonders, it could really have been a significant moment - personally more interesting than a new colour scheme on the Kodo tourbillon even though this, also, is just an aesthetic change.Meeting MR PIAGET! Yves Piaget on the return of Polo, at Time + Tide
A fun chat with a man who lived through the time that right now, the entire industry is going nuts over.These Watches Used to Be a Secret of the Ultra Rich. Not Anymore, at Bloomberg
Obviously the headline is making the point that you wouldn’t expect to read about Greubel Forsey in Bloomberg, or you wouldn’t a few years ago, but the interesting details are within. Close observers of the brand will know it’s on a growth push with Antonio Calce at the helm - I spoke to Calce last year for a story that just came out in QP, in print only, and he was still committed to the trajectory outlined in this NYT story from last August. If the manufacture expansion is delayed and volume growth is being dialled back, you have to ask: did GF commit to growth just as the market began to cool down, and is it ever actually going to happen? If so, at least they’re hitting the brakes now, before things are too far gone.Are Rising Watch Prices Changing The Playing Field For Enthusiasts? at Fratello
I mean, to answer the headline’s question: obviously yes. But the article was interesting for its comparison between watch customers and the famous ‘boiling frog’, and for invoking the Diderot Effect. If you read only one seventeenth century essay this week, ‘Regrets For My Old Dressing Gown’ should be it.Axing VAT Rebates And The Margin Scheme Are Slowly Strangling UK’s Ultra Luxury Watch Market, at WatchPro
This is a topic Rob writes about quite a lot, and rightly so - its not glamorous but it is fundamental to the success of the vintage watch industry in the UK. He makes good points about the political impossibility of reversing a (completely avoidable and unnecessary) post-Brexit decision even though the result would be a net gain to the UK government, something the state will need regardless of who wins the next election.
And Finally…
You want more? Ok, here’s more.
I enjoyed the bickering about the rules in this Hodinkee 21st century watch draft. There is no better fun than pointlessly nitpicking over the rules of a totally unimportant exercise. Drafts aren’t so common in the UK - it’s not a part of our sports culture - but it might catch on.
There was good gossip and insider collector chat in the latest Screw Down Crown. Is the 1916 Group partly up for sale? How does Sotheby’s change in seller/buyer premiums disadvantage it in the market? Is Wei Koh setting up a watch fund? (Who remembers Dominic Khoo? I wrote about watch funds in 2014 and I feel the same now as I did then: they do not work). I’ll stop there otherwise I’m just stealing his newsletter - go check it out.
Thanks for reading, everyone! Same time next week - onto the next 100 issues!
Chris
No shade to the excellent podcasts hosted by pairs of men - OT, Collective Horology, Scottish Watches etc - but also, some shade to the slightly boring podcasts hosted by pairs, or groups of men who really just took their pub chat/whatsapp group and added microphones. We get it, you like Tudor. So does everyone else!
Lots, I reckon. Never underestimate the power of just carrying on and not giving a shit.
Congratulations on 100 editions!
Thanks for answering my question - some very interesting perspectives there! I think the crux of the matter for me is actually your very last question - is it relevant to anyone other than a small group of people? I’ve been fortunate to own a few of the stereotypical “big” watches over the years (Red Sub, 6538, AP 15202, Chrono Bleu, MB&F, Roger W Smith etc etc) yet I still don’t feel it’s relevant to me - in part because I just don’t feel the value is there. As has been reported many times before, often watches sold at the big auctions can be bought at a better price elsewhere with a more personal experience. I do wonder how many customers a house like Phillips really has - I suspect that 80-90% of the volume goes to maybe 30-40 collectors… but that’s just a guess!